Beyond A/B Testing: Sequential Randomization for Developing Interventions in Scaled Digital Learning Environments

Randomized experiments ensure robust causal inference that are critical to effective learning analytics research and practice. However, traditional randomized experiments, like A/B tests, are limiting in large scale digital learning environments. While traditional experiments can accurately compare two treatment options, they are less able to inform how to adapt interventions to continually meet learners' diverse needs. In this work, we introduce a trial design for developing adaptive interventions in scaled digital learning environments -- the sequential randomized trial (SRT). With the goal of improving learner experience and developing interventions that benefit all learners at all times, SRTs inform how to sequence, time, and personalize interventions. In this paper, we provide an overview of SRTs, and we illustrate the advantages they hold compared to traditional experiments. We describe a novel SRT run in a large scale data science MOOC. The trial results contextualize how learner engagement can be addressed through inclusive culturally targeted reminder emails. We also provide practical advice for researchers who aim to run their own SRTs to develop adaptive interventions in scaled digital learning environments

Damage and energy absorption behaviour of composite laminates under impact loading using different impactor geometries

The present paper compares the damage and energy absorption behaviour of composites subjected to low-velocity impact using different frontal geometries for the impactor, with the composites possessing a layup of [02/902]2s. In this study, the rigid impactors with either round-nosed or flat-ended frontal geometry are employed to perform drop-weight tests at various impact energies ranging from 10 to 30 J. The measured loading response and energy absorption are analysed and compared. Additionally, the types and extent of impact-induced damage in the composite specimens are assessed via ultrasonic C-scan, optical microscopy (OM) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) studies. It is shown that the impact energy threshold for damage initiation is greater than 20 J when using the flat-ended impactor but is less than 10 J when using the round-nosed impactor. In both cases, delamination initiates between the plies in the composite laminate. However, for the flat-ended impactor, the damage behaviour of the fibres exhibits kinking fracture, which differs from the pull-out fibre-fracture caused by the round-nosed impactor. These differences in behaviour are attributed to impactor/composite contact geometry effects which leads to different extents of indentation damage, which in turn directly affects the degree of delamination and fibre damage in the composite

Assessing the Health of Richibucto Estuary with the Latent Health Factor Index

The ability to quantitatively assess the health of an ecosystem is often of great interest to those tasked with monitoring and conserving ecosystems. For decades, research in this area has relied upon multimetric indices of various forms. Although indices may be numbers, many are constructed based on procedures that are highly qualitative in nature, thus limiting the quantitative rigour of the practical interpretations made from these indices. The statistical modelling approach to construct the latent health factor index (LHFI) was recently developed to express ecological data, collected to construct conventional multimetric health indices, in a rigorous quantitative model that integrates qualitative features of ecosystem health and preconceived ecological relationships among such features. This hierarchical modelling approach allows (a) statistical inference of health for observed sites and (b) prediction of health for unobserved sites, all accompanied by formal uncertainty statements. Thus far, the LHFI approach has been demonstrated and validated on freshwater ecosystems. The goal of this paper is to adapt this approach to modelling estuarine ecosystem health, particularly that of the previously unassessed system in Richibucto in New Brunswick, Canada. Field data correspond to biotic health metrics that constitute the AZTI marine biotic index (AMBI) and abiotic predictors preconceived to influence biota. We also briefly discuss related LHFI research involving additional metrics that form the infaunal trophic index (ITI). Our paper is the first to construct a scientifically sensible model to rigorously identify the collective explanatory capacity of salinity, distance downstream, channel depth, and silt-clay content --- all regarded a priori as qualitatively important abiotic drivers --- towards site health in the Richibucto ecosystem.Comment: On 2013-05-01, a revised version of this article was accepted for publication in PLoS One. See Journal reference and DOI belo

Aplastic Crisis as Primary Manifestation of Systemic Lupus Erythematosus

Aplastic crisis is an unusual feature of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). We report the case of a 54-year-old woman presenting with both (extravascular) Coombs-positive hemolytic anemia and laboratory findings of bone marrow hyporegeneration with concomitant severe neutropenia. A bone marrow biopsy confirmed aplastic crisis. Diagnostic work-up revealed soaring titers of autoantibodies (anti-nuclear, anti-double-stranded DNA, anti-cardiolipin-IgM, and anti-beta 2-glykoprotein-IgM antibodies), indicating a connective tissue disease as the most plausible reason for bone marrow insufficiency. As the criteria for SLE were fulfilled, we initiated an immunosuppressive therapy by steroids, which led to a rapid complete hematologic and clinical remission in our patient. In this case, we could report on one of the rare cases of SLE-induced aplastic crisis showing that this condition can be entirely reversed by immunosuppressive treatment and that SLE-induced aplastic crisis yields a good prognosis. In conclusion, in a case of aplastic crisis, physicians should be aware that SLE can be a rare cause that is accessible to specific treatment

Levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system vs. usual medical treatment for menorrhagia: An economic evaluation alongside a randomised controlled trial

Objective: To undertake an economic evaluation alongside the largest randomised controlled trial comparing Levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine device ('LNG-IUS') and usual medical treatment for women with menorrhagia in primary care; and compare the cost-effectiveness findings using two alternative measures of quality of life. Methods: 571 women with menorrhagia from 63 UK centres were randomised between February 2005 and July 2009. Women were randomised to having a LNG-IUS fitted, or usual medical treatment, after discussing with their general practitioner their contraceptive needs or desire to avoid hormonal treatment. The treatment was specified prior to randomisation. For the economic evaluation we developed a state transition (Markov) model with a 24 month follow-up. The model structure was informed by the trial women's pathway and clinical experts. The economic evaluation adopted a UK National Health Service perspective and was based on an outcome of incremental cost per Quality Adjusted Life Year (QALY) estimated using both EQ-5D and SF-6D. Results: Using EQ-5D, LNG-IUS was the most cost-effective treatment for menorrhagia. LNG-IUS costs £100 more than usual medical treatment but generated 0.07 more QALYs. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for LNG-IUS compared to usual medical treatment was £1600 per additional QALY. Using SF-6D, usual medical treatment was the most cost-effective treatment. Usual medical treatment was both less costly (£100) and generated 0.002 more QALYs. Conclusion: Impact on quality of life is the primary indicator of treatment success in menorrhagia. However, the most costeffective treatment differs depending on the quality of life measure used to estimate the QALY. Under UK guidelines LNG-IUS would be the recommended treatment for menorrhagia. This study demonstrates that the appropriate valuation of outcomes in menorrhagia is crucial. Copyright: © 2014 Sanghera et al

A Microsoft-Excel-based tool for running and critically appraising network meta-analyses--an overview and application of NetMetaXL.

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly credited.BACKGROUND: The use of network meta-analysis has increased dramatically in recent years. WinBUGS, a freely available Bayesian software package, has been the most widely used software package to conduct network meta-analyses. However, the learning curve for WinBUGS can be daunting, especially for new users. Furthermore, critical appraisal of network meta-analyses conducted in WinBUGS can be challenging given its limited data manipulation capabilities and the fact that generation of graphical output from network meta-analyses often relies on different software packages than the analyses themselves. METHODS: We developed a freely available Microsoft-Excel-based tool called NetMetaXL, programmed in Visual Basic for Applications, which provides an interface for conducting a Bayesian network meta-analysis using WinBUGS from within Microsoft Excel. . This tool allows the user to easily prepare and enter data, set model assumptions, and run the network meta-analysis, with results being automatically displayed in an Excel spreadsheet. It also contains macros that use NetMetaXL's interface to generate evidence network diagrams, forest plots, league tables of pairwise comparisons, probability plots (rankograms), and inconsistency plots within Microsoft Excel. All figures generated are publication quality, thereby increasing the efficiency of knowledge transfer and manuscript preparation. RESULTS: We demonstrate the application of NetMetaXL using data from a network meta-analysis published previously which compares combined resynchronization and implantable defibrillator therapy in left ventricular dysfunction. We replicate results from the previous publication while demonstrating result summaries generated by the software. CONCLUSIONS: Use of the freely available NetMetaXL successfully demonstrated its ability to make running network meta-analyses more accessible to novice WinBUGS users by allowing analyses to be conducted entirely within Microsoft Excel. NetMetaXL also allows for more efficient and transparent critical appraisal of network meta-analyses, enhanced standardization of reporting, and integration with health economic evaluations which are frequently Excel-based.CC is a recipient of a Vanier Canada Graduate Scholarship from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (funding reference number—CGV 121171) and is a trainee on the Canadian Institutes of Health Research Drug Safety and Effectiveness Network team grant (funding reference number—116573). BH is funded by a New Investigator award from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research and the Drug Safety and Effectiveness Network. This research was partly supported by funding from CADTH as part of a project to develop Excel-based tools to support the conduct of health technology assessments. This research was also supported by Cornerstone Research Group

Extensive degeneracy, Coulomb phase and magnetic monopoles in an artificial realization of the square ice model

Artificial spin ice systems have been introduced as a possible mean to investigate frustration effects in a well-controlled manner by fabricating lithographically-patterned two-dimensional arrangements of interacting magnetic nanostructures. This approach offers the opportunity to visualize unconventional states of matter, directly in real space, and triggered a wealth of studies at the frontier between nanomagnetism, statistical thermodynamics and condensed matter physics. Despite the strong efforts made these last ten years to provide an artificial realization of the celebrated square ice model, no simple geometry based on arrays of nanomagnets succeeded to capture the macroscopically degenerate ground state manifold of the corresponding model. Instead, in all works reported so far, square lattices of nanomagnets are characterized by a magnetically ordered ground state consisting of local flux-closure configurations with alternating chirality. Here, we show experimentally and theoretically, that all the characteristics of the square ice model can be observed if the artificial square lattice is properly designed. The spin configurations we image after demagnetizing our arrays reveal unambiguous signatures of an algebraic spin liquid state characterized by the presence of pinch points in the associated magnetic structure factor. Local excitations, i.e. classical analogues of magnetic monopoles, are found to be free to evolve in a massively degenerated, divergence-free vacuum. We thus provide the first lab-on-chip platform allowing the investigation of collective phenomena, including Coulomb phases and ice-like physics.Comment: 26 pages, 10 figure

Black Hole Hair Removal: Non-linear Analysis

BMPV black holes in flat transverse space and in Taub-NUT space have identical near horizon geometries but different microscopic degeneracies. It has been proposed that this difference can be accounted for by different contribution to the degeneracies of these black holes from hair modes, -- degrees of freedom living outside the horizon. In this paper we explicitly construct the hair modes of these two black holes as finite bosonic and fermionic deformations of the black hole solution satisfying the full non-linear equations of motion of supergravity and preserving the supersymmetry of the original solutions. Special care is taken to ensure that these solutions do not have any curvature singularity at the future horizon when viewed as the full ten dimensional geometry. We show that after removing the contribution due to the hair degrees of freedom from the microscopic partition function, the partition functions of the two black holes agree.Comment: 40 pages, LaTe